Is India encouraging a Coup d’ e`tat by the Royal Nepal Army while China is busy with the massive earthquake and the August 2008 world Olympics in Beijing?

YES.


Washington, D.C., Wednesday, May 21, 2008 - Is India about to take advantage of the Chinese government’s involvement in the massive earth quake (and the August 2008, World Olympiad in Beijing) to give a ‘wink and a nod’ to the worried Gurkha-dominated Royal Nepalese Army to launch a coup d’e`tat in Khatmandu?  YES.

Our sources in Delhi report that such a move is indeed being discussed, and a conspiracy is being hatched, by ‘hawkish’ Indian officials, to encourage the Royal Nepalese Army to move against Comrade Prachanda, and his ‘Maoist’ Communist Party of Nepal, which has emerged as the leading party in the recent elections in Nepal, an under-developed Himalayan country sandwiched between China and India. (For details about Nepal, its geography, history, current situation etc., read our column, dated April 16, 2008, headlined, “Musings on the April 10 election ‘shock’ in Nepal - ‘Nepal election a nightmare for India’ says the Economist London,” by clicking at the following link:- >  http://www.khalistan-affairs.org/home/khalistancalling/2008/april16.aspx  <)

In the newly elected 601-member Nepal Constituent Assembly the Maoists have captured 220 seats – to the surprise of everyone - while their nearest rivals, the Nepali Congress, headed by Caretaker Prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who is also the Defence minister, have secured only 110. The party of moderate communists, Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) is in third position with 103 seats in the House, where 25 small parties are also represented. The immediate task at hand is to cobble leading parties together to form a credible government. The Indian rulers are being told, our sources report, that Delhi may be well-advised to support the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) if it decides to prevent the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists), led by Prachanda, from using its position as the leader of the Government to convert the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) into the Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) of Nepal patterned after the PLA of China or North Korea or the Cuban Army. Prachanda, whose registered name is Pushpa Kamal Dahal, is currently the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) as well as the supreme commander of the 20,000-strong Nepal People's Liberation Army (PLA). The members of the Maoist Nepal PLA have been living, under a negotiated agreement, in United Nations-supervised cantonments, scattered in various locations in Nepal, with their weapons stored in designated containers.

In his statements and interviews before the elections, Prachanda has given clear indications of his priorities if the Maoists came to power. First, have the monarchy abolished and proclaim Nepal as a Republic with a Presidential style of Government. Second, himself assume office as the President of Nepal. Third, abrogate all existing unequal agreements (and treaties) with India and re-negotiate those of them, which are considered to be in Nepal's interest. Fourth, merge the armed cadres of the Maoists (20,000-strong People's Liberation Army) into the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) which will convert the royalist (Gurkha-dominated) army into a people's army. And fifth stop the export of Gurkha mercenaries (currently numbering about 45, 000) to the Indian Army’s Gurkha Regiments.

The Nepalese Peoples Liberation Army and its possible integration into the Royal Nepal army has been a thorny issue for some time. The idea of integrating a politically-indoctrinated force, like Parchanda’s Nepal Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) into the Royal Nepal Army is being fiercely resisted by the Nepalese Generals. It is simply unimaginable for some people that the Royal Nepalese army, as an institution, would agree to be overwhelmed by the same rebel force it fought in the field before the rebels, stopped the insurgency, and took a political course which has led them to subsequently join a political group opposed to the absolute rule of King Gyanendra - now suspended. The April uprising of 2006 forced the monarch to bow to public pressure, in a short span of 19 days, mainly because the Royal Nepal army top brass declined to support any repressive policy which would have entailed massive bloodshed.

The April 10, 2008, Nepal general election was primarily held to elect an assembly that will write and approve a new constitution on the republican model by the end of 2010. The electoral mandate obtained through the April 10 poll has made the party of Nepal's former Maoist rebels the largest single group in the Constituent Assembly, but the chances of their leader, Prachanda (the fierce one), forming Nepal's first Maoist-led government are directly linked to his ability to persuade established rivals to join the coalition-in-the-making. However, it may not be too difficult to persuade others for a man like Parchanda, who earlier launched a political movement, and subsequently commanded, an armed group to support that rebellion for a decade (1996-2006). Incidentally, his party spokesman has publicly issued a threat last Thursday that the Maoists would form a minority government on their own if other political parties hesitated in forming a consensus coalition. The immediate task at hand is to cobble leading parties together to form a credible government. The incumbent interim constitution stipulates that the first meeting of the assembly will "implement" the decision of the outgoing interim legislature to make the country a "federal democratic republic". The first meeting has to be convened within 21 days of the announcement of the final election results. Once this happens, king Gyanendra will be told to vacate the Narayanhity Royal Palace, which he inherited as a Shaha king. An 18th-century king from the Shaha dynasty of the Gorkha principality, Prithvi Narayan Shaha, conquered small states and created a country called Nepal, in 1769 - seven years before the birth of the United States of America.

The report of our source in Delhi about the conspiracy of the ‘platoon of Indian hawks’, and some Nepalese Generals, to arrange an Army coup d’e`tat in Nepal is confirmed by the widely-read writings of prolific columnist B. Raman, an ex-RAW operative and a smart pupil of Channakya. Raman claims that the Nepalese Maoists are a threat to both Nepal and India.  Raman’s recent write up has listed series of "valid reasons for a military takeover in Nepal". (>  http://globalnewsblog.com/wp/?p=205   <) Raman asserts that, “India as a successful democracy, cannot support a military coup in any country. But, sometimes, in our national interest, we may have to close our eyes to a military take-over in a neighboring country.”  He suggests the Maoists' bid in Nepal to seize power should be thwarted jointly by democratic forces and the leadership (Generals) of Nepal’s military. He advises the Indian leadership to close its eyes to any military coup d’ e`tat in Nepal, as has been the Indian reaction to the military rule in Myanmar and the military’s take over of Bangladesh.

Which communist model Prachanda and his Maoist followers will follow—the Chinese, the Cuban or the Vietnamese, asks Raman? If one goes by his past statements and interviews, Parchanda, according to Raman, “is likely to follow a mix of the Chinese and Cuban models and not the Vietnamese. Once the communists accede to power—through an armed revolution or through the ballot box—- they try to see that nobody else can dislodge them. There have been exceptions, of course. Nicaragua, for example. But, there the communists were prevented from entrenching themselves through strong US support for non-communist elements.”

Raman concludes that, “it is neither in the interests of Nepal nor of India for the Maoists to entrench themselves in power and convert the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) into a Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of Nepal and turn the Himalayan country (Nepal) into a rear base to help India’s Maoists (Naxalite movement which already rules the roost in nearly 300 districts) in India. The plans of the Maoists for a presidential style of Government in Nepal with all powers concentrated in the hands of Prachanda, and with the Royal Nepal Army replaced by the ‘Maoist’ PLA, should be thwarted. All genuinely democratic forces in Nepal and the military leadership should join hands to prevent the communists from carrying out their long-term designs. The communists will fight back ferociously all attempts to deny them the fruits of power. The fear of a possibly bloody riposte by the communists should not deter those worried over the implications of the Maoists’ plan from acting before it is too late.”

Parchanda, Raman claims, “has always been attracted by the idea of Nepal serving as a rear base for exporting the Maoist revolution to (Naxalite-ruled areas) India.” Raman quotes from an interview Parchanda gave to a Latin American journalist, some time ago, in which he (Parchanda) viewed a destabilized India preoccupied with internal security as in the long-term interests of  Nepal. India, writes Raman, ‘should not allow his present charm offensive towards India make us forget his past.’

A pessimistic Raman concludes that, “till now, our military planners have been worried over the dangers of India being confronted one day with a two-front war with Pakistan and China. We now have to think seriously about the dangers of a three-front war with Pakistan, China and Nepal.”